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Iowa vs Iowa State odds, prediction, betting trends for ‘College GameDay’ game of the week Week 3 doesn’t feature a single matchup between ranked teams, but the next-best thing is an underappreciated in-state rivalry between No. 19 Iowa and Iowa State.
ESPN’s “College GameDay” is in Ames, the Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line and it’s one of the bigger games in recent memory with that hype attached.
WEEK 3 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Iowa State had a week to prepare after a 29-26 overtime escape against Northern Iowa in Week 1. Iowa, meanwhile, has allowed just 14 combined points in victories against Miami (Ohio) and Rutgers.
With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Saturday’s matchup between the Hawkeyes and Cyclones:
How to watch Iowa vs. Iowa State
Iowa and Iowa State starts at 4 p.m. ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1.
Betting odds on Iowa vs. Iowa State
Iowa State is a one-point favorite according to odds at Sportsbook Review, but 55 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Hawkeyes as of Wednesday. This could be a pick’em by kickoff.
All-time series record
Iowa leads the all-time series 44-22 and has won the last four meetings. Iowa State has not beaten the Hawkeyes in Ames since 2011.
Trends to know
— The Hawkeyes are just 1-6 against the spread as road underdogs since 2016 under Kirk Ferentz. Iowa is 7-6 against the spread in nonconference games in the same stretch.
— Since 2010, the average margin victory in this series is 16.6 points per game when played in Iowa City. When the rivalry shifts to Ames, however, that margin shrinks to 6.5 points per game. Two of those four matchups went to overtime.
— Iowa State is 10-4 against the spread against ranked opponents since Matt Campbell took over as head coach, but that includes a 4-6 against the spread record as a home favorite.
Iowa State’s Brock Purdy hit 30 of 41 passes in the Cyclones’ opener, and that included two touchdowns. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 113.5 passing yards per game with three picks through two games. Nathan Stanley has averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt for Iowa and will attack a Cyclones’ defense that struggled in spots in the opener and didn’t create a turnover. If Stanley can be efficient on the road, then Iowa State will be in trouble.
You know about Iowa’s defensive line and Sporting News preseason All-American A.J. Epenesa. How disruptive can that front be against Iowa State after generating just four tackles for loss through two games? Can the Cyclones control the tempo or will Iowa force too many three-and-outs? Likewise, the Iowa State defense needs another big game from linebacker Mike Rose, who had 3.5 tackles for loss in the opener.
Look at the fourth quarter in the last four meetings to see how the Hawkeyes have closed the door. Iowa has outscored Iowa State 38-14 in the fourth quarter in those four meetings. The defense has been dominant in those situations, and if it comes down to crunch time the Hawkeyes should be comfortable.
Stat that matters
Iowa has dominated the running game on both sides in the last four meetings. The Hawkeyes have rushed for 181.8 yards per game in those games while limiting the Cyclones to 82 yards per game. The Iowa State running back committee of Johnnie Lang, Sheldon Croney Jr. and Breece Hall needs to get going in this game to take the pressure off Purdy.
It’s GameDay’s first appearance in Ames, so the environment should be off the charts. We anticipate Iowa State jumping out to a quick lead, but as long as Iowa stays within double digits, the Hawkeyes should be able to wear on Purdy with a defense that settles in as the game progresses. Stanley throws two touchdowns in the second half, and Iowa makes it five in a row against its in-state rival.